The San Fernando Valley’s economy is strong and increasingly diversified, but business and political leaders must redouble their efforts to promote the region’s economic development and stem the flight of businesses. That was the consensus during the recent “Summit 2000” conference hosted by the Economic Alliance of the San Fernando Valley, which was held to assess the health of the Valley’s economy and target ways to improve it. “One thing that impressed me was the economic vitality and strength of the Valley,” said David Fleming, chairman of the alliance. “I don’t think there’s any question the Valley would be a very strong (standalone) city.” The six-hour event, attended by about 200 business and government leaders, featured the release of a comprehensive study called the Valley Almanac, as well as business and public-opinion surveys. Economy in growth mode In a first-ever economic forecast tailored specifically for the Valley, Jack Kyser, chief economist with the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp., said employment should grow 2.3 percent this year after last year’s 2.4 percent gain, while taxable retail sales should increase 4.1 percent in 2000 to just over $11 billion. “There were more retail sales in the Valley last year than the entire state of Montana,” he said. With 1.7 million people, the San Fernando Valley, including Burbank, Glendale, San Fernando and Calabasas, has become an economic power to be reckoned with, he said. The Valley’s economy has become much more diversified since the downsizing of the aerospace industry in the early ’90s, with motion pictures, technology and tourism expanding to help fill the gaps, he said. The Valley’s employment base has also seen solid growth since 1997, increasing by 15,900 jobs in 1999. This year should see a similar gain, bringing total employment to 700,200. However, the Valley still hasn’t recovered all the jobs lost in the early ’90s and probably won’t do so through 2000, said Kyser. The Valley is still 32,000 jobs below the 1991 count. Clouds on the horizon Despite the rosy growth forecasts, analysts agree that for the Valley to realize its full potential and fight off corporate raiders from other areas, business and political leaders will have to come up with innovative strategies to reuse land to accommodate growing businesses and counter worsening traffic congestion. Those two issues the lack of developable land and concern about traffic congestion provided a leitmotif for the event. A survey of 656 Valley businesses conducted for the alliance identified the lack of building and parking space as key concerns among business owners. Nearly 40 percent of respondents plan to expand or relocate, and about 25 percent said their current location has disadvantages in terms of reaching customers or transporting supplies or products. About 70 percent of those surveyed said they would remain in the Valley if forced to move to another facility, with 12 percent saying they would relocate elsewhere in Southern California and 5 percent saying they would move out of the state. Kyser said the lack of quality industrial space will continue to drive employers to Ventura County and the Santa Clarita and Antelope valleys unless something is done. The lack of developable land, in turn, is expected to put a damper on housing construction, making it tougher for employers to find decent housing for their workers, Kyser said. Only 144 new housing units were available in the Valley, at an average price of $450,000 per detached unit, in the first half of 1999, according to the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California. Fleming and others agree that finding property in the land-scarce Valley will be key to attracting and retaining companies. “We’ve got to be looking at the areas that are run down and figure out ways to reuse the valuable dirt,” Fleming said. “Maybe we should be looking at property in the Northeast Valley, Canoga Park and up and down the Southern Pacific Railroad tracks (along Victory Boulevard).” Traffic congestion rates as big concern In a public-opinion survey by the Rose Institute of State and Local Government at Claremont McKenna College, 90 percent of the 801 respondents either strongly agree or agree that traffic delays on local roads and freeways have gotten worse. Yet 76 percent of the respondents said they never ride the bus and 89 percent never use Metrolink. Crime, smog and water quality remain concerns for residents. Respondents also expressed widespread discontent with the Los Angeles City Council, with only 33 percent giving it a favorable rating. About 56 percent of the respondents said they would vote for the San Fernando Valley to become a separate city. Several participants at the summit noted that the Valley has been unfairly characterized as a white, suburban enclave, when in fact its population has grown more ethnically diverse. As of January 1999, Latinos accounted for 36.5 percent of the Valley’s total population, which according to the United Way of Los Angeles is larger than the Latino population of San Antonio, Texas. Asians and Pacific Islanders are the next largest minority group, comprising a 12.3 percent share of the total population. Bruce Ackerman, president of the Economic Alliance, said it could be months before business and economic development types digest all the data assembled for the conference. “People are trying to figure out what they want to do with it now,” he said. He noted that the alliance and other business groups will put the information to use immediately to educate companies considering a possible relocation to the Valley and retain those that are thinking of moving. The almanac and public and business opinion surveys have been posted on the alliance Web site at www.valleyofthestars.org.
