By CHRIS COATES Staff Reporter Albert Greene, CEO of Valley Presbyterian Hospital, has a no-nonsense view of avian flu’s impact on the Valley. “Given the fact that California is a major entry point for people from the Pacific Rim and the Far East, which is where most of these outbreaks have taken place, it puts California at the front lines should an outbreak take place in the United States,” he said. With that in mind, hospitals like Greene’s and a growing number of businesses across the San Fernando Valley are preparing for the worst if the flu were to take hold: Hundreds of sick people, an overtaxed health care system and a deteriorating workforce that by some estimates could cost the U.S. economy up to $165 billion. At Verizon, which has a 500-employee office in Thousand Oaks, telecommuting technology has been in place for several years and would be used if the flu breaks out, said Verizon spokesman Jonathan Davies. “It gives us that flexibility. Any concerns about avian flu, we could ask employees to stay away from their office,” Davies said. Glendale-based Nestle USA, Blue Cross of California and Boeing also have plans in place. “It would affect us. Any kind of global issue does,” said Kelly Donaghy, security and fire protection spokeswoman for Boeing Co., which has 188,000 workers in hundreds of locations. Locally, the company has 2,000 employees spread among facilities in Sylmar, Santa Susana, West Hills and the Reusable Space Systems Assembly, Integration and Space Center in Palmdale. For a company like Boeing that does extensive business in Asia, a pandemic such as avian flu could wreak havoc not only on its workforce, but also its complex supply and delivery chain, especially if trade restrictions are put into place. Donaghy said the company has long had a crisis plan in place, but not specifically for a pandemic. It has since been revised. “For the last year, we’ve been developing plans for those unique issues,” she said. Donaghy could not talk about details of the preparations, but she said it includes everything from human resource and business continuity issues to supplies. Some of those steps mirror those put into place by Boeing after the severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, outbreak four years ago. “The lessons we learned were really about how the rest of the world dealt with it,” she said. Thinking ahead Like SARS, the challenge is trying to predict where avian flu will strike. “We’re trying to think ahead but it really depends on exactly what happens and how people respond,” Donaghy said. Michelle Kelly, a senior risk services consultant for the insurance broker Poms & Associates, said she has been working with a number of law firms, entertainment companies and corporations on risk management. Kelly said that from a financial standpoint, it is in businesses’ best interest to make sure they are prepared for the worst. That includes reviewing or creating disaster programs to creating backup systems for computers. “If you’re prepared for avian flu, you’re prepared for anything,” she said. “Avian flu is just one particular disaster.” Of course, the companies that Kelly works with can usually afford extensive preparation programs. Smaller companies typically don’t have the means to create such plans, said Bruce Ackerman, president and CEO of the Economic Alliance of the San Fernando Valley. “It’s not being talked about,” he said. “Typically, these small businesses are concerned about the day-to-day operations, not disasters.” No ordinary flu As of June 6, the avian flu has killed 128 people worldwide, 42 of which were in Vietnam, according to the World Health Organization. While the flu occurs naturally in some birds, it can be deadly to domesticated varieties such as ducks, chickens and turkeys. The current strain can’t be transferred from birds to humans. But if it the virus were to mutate, humans could be infected with a deadly flu-like sickness, creating a pandemic. Such concerns have prompted the federal government to commit $3.8 billion while Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger recently approved a bill for $460,000 in antiviral medications. The Los Angeles County Department of Health Services has also put together a comprehensive plan for bird influenza, said agency spokesman Michael Wilson. Local governments have also stepped up training at medical clinics and hospitals where, like companies, many have adapted existing emergency plans to address the new threat. “We would probably handle this as we would with any other epidemic,” said Greene of Valley Presbyterian Hospital in Van Nuys. For now, Presbyterian plans to use its standard emergency protocol while the hospital convenes a panel to craft an eight-phase avian flu plan, said Dr. Jerrold Dreyer, director of the hospital’s infection control. Dreyer said the hospital has purchased extra respiratory equipment, communication devices such as ham radios and loads of the antiviral medication Tamiflu. Steps have also been put into place to make sure the hospital isn’t overwhelmed with patients and that there are enough healthy staff to threat them. Valley Presbyterian is also working with the County Department of Health Acute Communicable Disease Control. At the 421-bed Glendale Adventist Medical Center, officials have also put into place a similar contingency plan while learning on the job, said Chip Riddle, director of facility support services. “We’re getting more and more educated about what it is,” he said. Some of the planning is specific for avian flu while most could be used for any type of disaster. “It’s an emergency with a twist,” Riddle said. Other avian plans are being adopted at Northridge Hospital Medical Center, Providence Saint Joseph Medical Center in Burbank and Providence Holy Cross Medical Center in Mission Hills. Uncertainty Amid all this planning, however, Dr. Michael Belman, staff vice president and medical director for Blue Cross of California, said the impact of avian flu largely depends on the size of the outbreak. “On the one end it may have very little impact. It may just be a few cases and we wouldn’t have a mass panic,” he said. “The other side is that if there were a large number of cases, this would have a significant impact on the whole medical healthcare system in California.” The threat means more people in hospitals, increased costs while infrastructure would be put to the test. Supplies could also diminish, especially ventilators, which could be in strong demand because avian flu triggers respiratory failure. “Even under the present capacity, it is known there are not enough ventilators out there,” Belman said. There is also a significant economic impact from the additional training, extra hours and equipment purchases. Still, Belman said it is much better to be safe than sorry. “It’s a case of watchful expectancy. It could happen in the same way an earthquake could happen,” he said. “I think we just have to keep it in perspective that it’s not an epidemic yet.”
