Does Gov. Jerry Brown know something that the majority of economists don’t? That a recession is looming and the recovery is about spent, even though many in the working- and middle-class could rightly claim to have barely have benefited by it? Or is he just crying wolf, trying to urge his party to put the brakes on spending before the state finds itself overextended when the next recession does inevitably come? The governor claimed the next recession was “around the corner” when he released his $115 billion general fund spending plan last month for the fiscal year starting July 1. It’s more than $7 billion larger than the current budget, though not large enough for some Democrats. But so far, there are few economists who would make such a claim, though a few lone wolfs such as Wall Street pundit Raoul Pal are starting to sing the governor’s tune. The primary evidence: Business cycles historically run seven to eight years, about the current distance from the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Frankly, I defer to respected economists who say the evidence just isn’t there yet to make such a proclamation. And with the world buffeted by new forces, ranging from the Chinese economy to the war in the Middle East to crazy-low interest rates, I’m not sure how much credence should be placed in traditional economic models. That being said, as a keen observer of the greater San Fernando Valley economy, I would postulate that by one measure we are getting a bit overheated. And I’ll call it the residential developer’s index. In this issue alone, we write about two separate residential projects in the west San Fernando Valley. On our front page there is California Home Builders’ approved plan to construct 90 single-family homes at the site of the former Boeing Fitness Center at 8500 Fallbrook Ave. There also is a proposal by L.A. developer KB Home to put up 58 condominiums at the former home of the West Valley Christian Church and Canyon Vista Preschool at 22001 Nordhoff St. This one isn’t going too well with residents, who say it conflicts with the nearby nature preserve. Last month, we wrote about an $800 million project in Santa Clarita that is moving forward and would feature 800 apartments, 295 townhomes and nearly a million square feet of office and retail space. And the last few years there have been over a dozen other mixed-use and residential proposals that could easily add upwards of 5,000 units from Glendale to Woodland Hills and communities in between. For example, work has started on a 540,000-square-foot residential, retail and office complex at 21221 Oxnard St., where the Los Angeles Daily News once had its office. It will feature a 379-unit apartment building; later construction calls for a nine-story office tower when market demand supports it. It certainly appears to be a propitious time to be a residential developer. In April, the median sales price of a single family Valley home hit $550,000, nearly 7 percent more than a year earlier and the highest since 2007. Condos were doing even better, up 12 percent to $350,000, the highest since 2008. And forget it, if you are a renter. Average rents in L.A. County rose 2.4 percent in the first quarter to $1,520, making the area among the costliest and tightest rental markets in the country. All this has been propelled without doubt by a recovering economy, spurred by international trade, a vibrant tech sector and even a resurgence in aerospace – all enough to draw nearly 140,000 new residents to Los Angeles between 2010 and 2014, according to U.S. Census figures released last month. But developers are a funny lot. While they are risk takers, they certainly try to time their investments. And many will only jump in when they are certain the economy has recovered. That’s a bias that helps explain why the largest and most ambitious developments, whether in the commercial or residential side of the market, often open just as a recovery is petering out. Like I said, I am not an economist, but many of the most ambitious developments that the Business Journal has been covering should open in a few years. Let’s hope buyers and renters are clamoring at their doors.