Nationwide retail sales are poised to grow this holiday season, according to a report from Los Angeles real estate firm CBRE Group Inc. Sales will jump a total of 4.3 to 4.8 percent this November and December, marking the third straight year of seasonal spending growth of more than 4 percent. E-commerce sales will drive the increase, growing 16 percent year-over-year while accounting for over 12 percent of total retail sales. CBRE Senior Vice President David Rush attributed the rise in large part to retailers giving customers the option to buy online and then pick up in-store. “Retail is as much a science as it is an art,” Rush said. “The thing that looked like it was going to be holding retailers back is now bolstering brick-and mortar-stores.” Consumers are turning to in-store pickup because they don’t have to wait for a package to arrive or pay delivery fees. Retailers are embracing it, Rush said, because it cuts delivery costs and allows them to offer more inventory without having to stock it on the sales floor. In addition, once customers arrive at a store, they are likely to make extra purchases. Some retailers even offer a 10 percent discount on purchases made during a pickup, Rush said. Rush anticipates sales in the Valley region to reflect nationwide growth but foresees the holiday spending getting off to a slow start. “Everything begins with Black Friday,” he said. “And unfortunately, because of the fires, that could be a little slower than normal to start with.” Still, Rush remains confident that low unemployment, modest wage growth and high consumer sentiment will counteract the negative effects of the Woolsey and Hill Fires. According to CBRE’s report, toys are one of the product categories set to see the most growth, up nearly 4 percent year-over-year. Toys R Us’ recent closure has left retailers such as Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. competing for the toy chain’s $1.3 billion in annual sales — nearly 5 percent of the overall toy market. “Other retailers will be able to pick up more sales,” Rush said. “Just as many toys will be sold.” That’s good news for Van Nuys toy manufacturers Funrise Inc. and MGA Entertainment Inc., who were both major suppliers to Toys R Us. Clothing sales are also set to see a bump this year, growing 2.2 percent — an encouraging sign for Sherman Oaks apparel brand licensor Cherokee Inc., whose total revenue has dipped each of the past two years. “Men’s clothing is the first to pull back during tough economic times,” Rush said. “But in a market like this, sales are improving significantly.” – Ethan Varian
